And So The Horserace Begins

August 20, 2011
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Well, that hiatus took a bit longer than I originally planned; in fact, it was so long that I thought I would wait until I was able to establish a (mostly) regular schedule in about a week, but this post couldn’t wait for then.  We’re just about a week past the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa, which isn’t really all that important in the grand scheme of the 2012 elections aside from perhaps being a (very early) measure of a campaign’s organizational strength (and ability to entertain people), and it’s safe to say that the political horserace is in full swing.  Unfortunately for the majority of the country that doesn’t care about (or dislikes) the Tea Party, at the rate things are going, there may not be a moderate candidate by the time the actual Iowa Caucus, New Hampshire Primary, or even the general election contest about a year from now gets underway.

Will the Real Conservative Please Stand Up?

Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty was the first to end his candidacy following the Straw Poll, and aside from giving some real, concrete, meaning to the Straw Poll, it’s a shame he’s out.  Aside from Pawlenty, the other prominent (somewhat) moderate Republicans in the field at this point are former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney; of this group, really only Romney is in the spotlight as having a good shot at the nomination.  It is only August of 2011, and anything can happen in the next year, however, the conservatives are largely overshadowing the moderates, which doesn’t bode well.

Though Romney is considered one of the frontrunners, all of the spotlight is focused on Congresswoman Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and new entrant Texas Gov. Rick Perry.  Oh, where do I begin?  As a Texan, I could say enough about Rick Perry to make another post as to why he shouldn’t be elected President, and Bachmann is just as crazy, if not worse.  For instance, she calls herself a doctor, even though she does not hold a PhD.  She does have a JD, but as the linked article explores, there’s a bit of controversy whether that allows the use of the “Doctor” title.  In addition, she still thinks the Soviet Union is around and menacing America, not to mention confusing Elvis’ birthday with the day he died and other speaking fails.  That all is before we even get to her stance on the issues, which are as deserving of another post as Rick Perry’s positions are.  There’s also Sarah Palin, who never seems to be quite in the race, but then again, showing up in Iowa on the same day that the real candidates are out meeting voters doesn’t exactly signal that she’s entirely out of the race either.

U.S. Republican presidential candidates gather before the start of their debate in Ames, Iowa August 11, 2011. They are (from L to R) Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich. REUTERS/Jim Young (UNITED STATES – Tags: POLITICS ELECTIONS)

…And then there’s Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who despite coming in a close second in the Straw Poll seems to be continuously ignored by the media, and that may not be such a bad thing.  After all, even though the Internet culture seems to love him, his positions are just as crazy as Bachmann’s or Rick Perry’s ideas.  Congressman Paul, after all, wants to not only end the IRS, but he also wants to bring every soldier stationed overseas home.  As much as that second point sounds logical in theory, bringing everyone home, not just ending the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, is highly impractical.  It would vastly degrade our perception as the world’s lone superpower and add a considerable strain to the national economy (read: unemployment figures).

Despite the media’s decision to ignore Ron Paul, he is perhaps the candidate that Team Obama needs to fear the most.  As I stated earlier, Congressman Paul seems to have the support of a good portion of the Internet culture; this reason alone should give the President’s campaign cause for concern.  If you remember back to 2008, a key part of President Obama’s strategy was online outreach, especially to the younger voters.  These same demographics (young and connected) now express support for Ron Paul; though they have in the past as well, a theoretical nomination for Ron Paul changes the game completely.  In a Obama – Paul matchup in the general election, we may see the campaign decided by who can have the better social media presence.  Ron Paul may be a nobody to the mainstream media, but his Internet appeal combined with the support of the Tea Party would be a troublesome mixture for President Obama’s reelection bid.

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