The Rise of the Challengers

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Yesterday, in case you didn’t notice, was being called Super Tuesday by political pundits, most of the mainstream media, and just about all the campaigns involved in the various primaries being held around the country.  Technically, it wasn’t the “Super Tuesday”, as that refers to the day, normally in February, when a large portion of the states holding primaries in the Presidential race do so.  However, the name does certainly fit yesterday’s contests, as we saw the greatest number of primaries held on a single date thus far in the 2010 midterm election cycle.

Now, that’s a long and complicated statement, but basically it meant that there were no fewer than four or five closely contested elections that were happening simultaneously as I was flying halfway across the country.  Thankfully for my sanity and the ability of everyone to get about and vote who wanted to, polls don’t close until the early evening, with firm results not being discussed in the media until later that night.  In general, the theme of this week’s primaries was a general dissatisfaction with incumbents and a certain grassroots phenomenon we have all noticed in some way.

By far, the most interesting races to watch were the primaries in Pennsylvania, headlined by the battle between Senator Arlen Specter and Senate hopeful Rep. Joe Sestak.  According to the Huffington Post, Senator Specter’s career has come to a screeching halt, after he lost his primary.  Just about everyone is blaming it on the whole controversy over him switching parties last year, and they do have a valid point.  However, I chalk this one up to the general anti-incumbent feeling among voters this campaign season.  While the switch, and Representative Sestak’s advertisements highlighting it likely did have an effect on Pennsylvania voters, I get the feeling that the voters do not particularly care which party their longtime Senator happens to belong to; having been in the Senate for five terms, Senator Specter had the record of service to his state and the country that he could stand behind.  However, Rep. Sestak, who will now face Republican nominee Pat Toomey in November, appeared able to use Specter’s record against him by essentially arguing that thirty years was enough time and that a breath of fresh air is needed.  Whether that breath of fresh air means a “real” Democrat as Rep. Sestak portrayed himself in contrast to Sen. Specter or a new Republican in the Senate remains to be seen.

Trouble in the South

While there was a special election in Pennsylvania to fill the remaining five months of the late Rep. John Murtha’s term, it was overshadowed by the other important Senate primaries around the country.  In what is certainly an ominous development for the Republican Party, the favorite candidate in the Kentucky Senate primary, Trey Grayson, who was handpicked for the race by none other than Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, also of Kentucky, lost to the Tea Party favorite and lost big.  According to the New York Times, the Tea Party won this one by a margin of 59 to 35.

It would be one thing if this was like January’s relatively close election between Senator Scott Brown (R-Mass.) and Martha Coakley, however results like this are stunners.  If you need hard proof of an anti-establishment feeling in America, look no further.  These kinds of margins are what candidates capitalize on as mandates.  Given that Senator McConnell is firmly Republican, and thought of as one of the architects of the rather annoying unified opposition in the Senate, it is safe to assume that now Mr. Rand Paul, the son of the infamous Tea Party darling Rep. Ron Paul, is a sure bet to be the next junior Senator from Kentucky.  Especially with a primary victory margin like that, it should scare mainstream Republicans around the country.

On a side note, the Tea Party also made gains in Utah by convincing delegates that Senator Bob Bennett (R-Utah) was not conservative enough.  Given how the liberal interest groups love him (as in, not at all), if he isn’t conservative enough, which mainstream candidate is?  Further complicating things is the fact that Mr. Paul has publicly stated that he will not vote for Senator McConnell to become Majority Leader in the Senate if the GOP manages to capture it from the Democrats in November, according to the Huffington Post.  If you thought the Senate was fun to watch already, imagine a power struggle for what is essentially the day-to-day top job.  Though the Vice-President is technically President of the Senate, the Majority Leader is responsible for most of the routine leadership tasks, with the VP only stepping in for ceremonial things or to cast a tie breaker vote, among other duties.

Arkansas was also among the states featuring a heated primary battle on Tuesday, this one being called “the battle of the special interests” due to the sheer amount of money thrown at both of the main Democratic contenders, Senator Blanche Lincoln and challenger Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter.  Little is known about the outcome of this one at this point in time, as the race is one of those classic “too close to call” elections we all love to watch as the media plays them up as more dramatic than your favorite TV show.

According to CNN, Senator Lincoln is ahead in the primary, but with votes still being counted, it appears that the two will be forced into a runoff election in June.  That is wonderful news for the GOP in Arkansas hoping to capture that seat on the way to gaining control of the Senate; after all campaigns are expensive, and with a divisive primary followed by an even rougher runoff election, which, by the way, happens to give the Republicans a head start of nearly a month in the general campaign, will make the race very interesting for a close midterm election.  If Senator Lincoln ultimately prevails in the seemingly-inevitable runoff election, we will have an essentially straightforward incumbent vs. challenger election in the Fall.

On the other hand, if Lincoln loses and Lt. Governor Bill Halter is the Democratic nominee, things become a lot more interesting.  Halter’s campaign was one of those that progressive unions and PACs decided to use to punish Lincoln and moderate Democrats for their, shall we say, independence in the healthcare debate.  Senator Lincoln was, after all, one of the Democratic Senators that held up reform by demanding concessions from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D- Nevada).  If Halter wins the nomination, it puts a lot of teeth in progressives’ threats against the other moderate Democratic targets of the liberal efforts.  If Halter wins, in short we will have infighting in both parties this Fall, and with newly-competitive Pennsylvania and the Tea Party headaches in Kentucky among the other twists so far this election year, this is shaping up to be an interesting midterm election to watch.  Of course, that means I’ll likely be doing an all-nighter come election day in November looking through the various results from the races expected to be the ones to watch; though planning this far out for it, maybe I won’t have to pull an all-nighter, unless one of the top races, or power in the Senate, is too close to call.

The The Rise of the Challengers by The New Age of Politics, unless otherwise expressly stated, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.

Tags: Arkansas, Arlen Specter, Bill Halter, Democratic, elections, GOP, Joe Sestak, Kentucky, midterm, Mitch McConnell, Pat Toomey, Pennsylvania, Politics, primary, Republican, Senator Blanche Lincoln, Super Tuesday, United States Senate